Redcar & Cleveland JSNA


Children

What is the projected level of need?

Wider determinants of health

Education

As a result of the updated OFSTED schedule of inspection, it is likely that there will be an increased number of Redcar & Cleveland schools judged to be ‘satisfactory - requires improvement’. These schools will require co-ordinated support packages in order to bring about strong and sustainable improvement within the 24 months stipulated by OFSTED.

Poverty

Behaviour and lifestyle

Alcohol misuse

Unable to identify the local projected levels of need.

Illicit drug use

It is difficult to project the level of need due to the complex nature of illicit drug use.

Smoking

Content under development.

Diet and nutrition

Obesity

Obesity prevalence is forecast to rise for both adults and children.  The trend has been upward for decades, and suggests that by 2030 41-48% of men and 35-43% of women could be obese. The most recent data suggests that the rise in obesity is levelling off.  However, more than one-quarter of adults are already obese and there is a serious and growing burden of obesity-related ill-health.

The Foresight report suggests an increase in the prevalence of obesity among people aged under 20 to around 15% by 2025.  The proportion of boys having a healthy BMI will be 45% while for girls only 30% will be in the healthy weight category (Government Office for Science , 2007).

Percentage of children predicted to be obese by age and sex, England, 2004 and 2025

Gender

Age

2004

2025

Boys

6-10

10%

21%

11-15

5%

11%

All under 20

8%

15%

Girls

6-10

10%

14%

11-15

11%

22%

All under 20

10%

15%

Source: Foresight report

 

For children, there is evidence from the last three to four years of HSE data that the increase in child obesity is slowing. This is also evident from the local NCMP data. Forecasts to 2020 show encouraging signs that the rising trend may be levelling out, suggesting that there will be considerably lower proportions of overweight and obese children and young people than previously estimated McPherson et al, 2011). While it is encouraging that the trend in child obesity is levelling off, and may reduce in the future, the forecast prevalence of obesity and overweight remains high.

Forecasts for overweight and obesity in children and young people in 2020, England

Gender

Age

Overweight

Obese

‘Foresight’ forecast 2007

McPherson forecast 2011

‘Foresight’ forecast 2007

McPherson forecast 2011

Boys

2-11

22%

17%

20%

13%

12-19

25%

18%

19%

6%

Girls

2-11

34%

17%

14%

10%

12-19

35%

29%

30%

9%

 

Illness and death

Injuries

Mental health

Unable to identify the local projected levels of need.

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