What is the projected level of need?
In the short to medium term, Stockton is likely to follow the national trends of increasing numbers of people over retirement age due to improved survival rates in that age group, particularly among men.
Stockton on Tees had an estimated population of 30,000 people aged 65 or over in 2011. This population is forecast to grow by 25% in the next 10 years and to continue to grow in the following decade to stand at 48,000 in 2031, representing a 50% increase in two decades.
More noticeably the sub set of age 90+ residents is set to increase by 300% over the same period.
The number of older people living alone will grow in line with population growth and Stockton can anticipate 14,000 older residents living alone with a 2:1 female to male ratio. It is reasonable to assume that, over the next 10 years an additional 3,800 hours of home care per week will be required and an additional 300 people in residential or nursing homes.
The number of older people with dementia is set to rise at a rate of greater than 30% over the next 10 years in Stockton, resulting in a total of 2,700 residents with symptoms. There is a growing national awareness that dementia is an area where early intervention can be cost-effective and increase quality of life and that new strategies need to be formed. The number of older people with depression or dementia currently stands at 5,500 and will be over 6,000 in the next three years.
The UK is facing a huge increase in the number of people with diabetes. Since 1996 the number of people diagnosed with diabetes has increased from 1.4 million to 2.6 million. By 2025 it is estimated that over four million people will have diabetes. Most of these cases will be Type 2 diabetes, because of our ageing population and rapidly rising numbers of overweight and obese people. In Stockton-on-Tees, the number of people aged 65 and over with diabetes is forecast to increase from 3,900 in 2012 to 4,700 in 2020 (POPPI, 2013).